(As the reader will see from various comments, the proper way to refer to the subject country is simply “Ukraine” and not “the Ukraine.” The headline and various other references in the article have been changed accordingly.)
Historical perspective
Let me begin by saying I most certainly am not a historian and I am not any kind of expert on the Soviet Union or today’s Russia. I am writing this because, in my lay-person’s view, I see a great deal of importance in what has been going on in that region. I feel that the American media — actually the global media — have maybe done an adequate job of reporting on the trees but have utterly missed the forest. I don’t have answers to the questions I pose and I hope others might add their knowledge and observations.
Let’s start with a few things we know:
- The USSR officially began in 1922 between the world wars and in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution.
- The USSR consisted of states that more-or-less still have the same names and boundaries today. This is not strictly true, but approximately true.
- In the USSR days, these states were all heavily controlled by Moscow. That is to say, the states bordering Russia were all heavily controlled. These include Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The next row of states westward were more independent, but the Soviets largely controlled them too. That includes Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Geographically this empire was huge. It controlled many valuable resources. Economically it is significant, having a GDP around $2 trillion at its peak around 1980 compared to the US GDP of about $3 trillion at the same time.
The USSR dissolved in 1991. By that time, the economic gap between the US and USSR had widened with the USSR GDP being about $2.5 trillion compared to US GDP of nearly $5 trillion. Per capita income was $8,700 and $19,800 for the USSR and USA respectively, and this figured strongly in the demise of the USSR.
Putin was about 40 years old when the USSR broke up. About 10 years later he became the President of Russia and has controlled that country more-or-less as dictator for the last 20 years.
What does Putin want?
It seems to me the media never really addresses this head on. It seems rather transparent what he wants. Today, Russia has a GDP of under $1.5 trillion compared to $21 trillion for the USA economy. Basically Russia’s economy is almost insignificant on the world stage. Russia is the 12th largest national economy, behind India, Italy and South Korea. Russia’s economy is half the size of California’s and less than Texas and New York.
But that has not prevented this dictator from amassing a vast personal fortune. Estimates of his net worth range from $70 to 200 billion. Not a bad gig if you can get it. So we can say for certain Putin wants money. But more particularly, he wants money OUTSIDE of Russia in currency he can control and spend. This is why he originally found Trump, Deutsche Bank and the rest of that organized syndicate useful. They specialize in money laundering on a huge scale.
It seems to me, however, that money at this scale is really just a proxy for power. The person who can accumulate the most money is, by definition, the most powerful. You can’t accumulate that kind of money without power and when you have that kind of money you can command power wherever you need it.
How does Ukraine figure?
Even with money, Putin will never be nearly as powerful as others connected with the big economies (US and China in particular). Putin has been working toward the reestablishment of the USSR the entire time since the USSR fell, and indeed, his plotting to rebuild the USSR was probably a major factor in his rise to power.
So far, we have seen small, incremental steps toward the reestablishment of the USSR:
- In 2008, just as the world was undergoing a huge financial meltdown and the US was on the verge of a historic election of Obama, Putin invaded Georgia and Russia still occupies much of that state.
- Near the end of Obama’s second term when Putin perceived the US as being in disarray (thanks to Putin’s elevation of characters like Trump, Manafort, Stone, Flynn, Jill Stein and many others,) Putin saw an opening to simply take Crimea away from Ukraine, followed by the occupation of the Eastern part of Ukraine.
- Putin has propped up dictators all over the world, but none more important than Lukashenko in Belarus and Orbán in Hungary.
Ukraine has been the most West-friendly nation in the region, and consequently has been at the center of Putin’s continued attention. Notice that by grabbing Crimea, and by having Soviet-style sycophants installed in Hungary and Belarus, Putin has Ukraine nearly surrounded geographically.
Ukraine is very important geographically for transport of resources. Its own GDP is not insignificant at about $150 billion. But mainly, Putin sees Ukraine as the biggest barrier to reestablishment of the USSR in all its glory.
Why does this matter?
Why am I writing this? Because we are on a direct path to cede that entire region to the new USSR. Ukraine is the key to that, and this is why everybody including Guiliani and his dog have been crawling all over that place. This is really simple. If you are involved in Ukraine, then either you are working toward the reestablishment of the USSR or you are trying to keep that region at least neutral. There is no middle ground.
And here, finally, I arrive at the main point, which I believe has been totally missed by media coverage. In the past, when the Russians were on the rise, Republicans were quick to stand up against that. But now, Putin has so thoroughly corrupted the GOP through 30+ years of systematic recruitment, there will not be a single Republican that will stand up as Putin rolls tanks into the rest of Ukraine he does not already control.
And then we will back to the good old days of the USSR and the cold war.